What Are Conspiracy Theories?

A conspiracy theory is defined as a theory that rejects the standard explanation for an event and instead credits a covert group or organization with carrying out a secret plot.

Chances are, you can think of at least one conspiracy theory you’ve heard about. For example, one in three Americans believe that global warming is a hoax.1 A full 49% of New Yorkers believe that the United States government was complicit in the 9/11 attacks.2 Over 50% of Americans believe that Lee Harvey Oswald did not act alone in the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Approximately 37% of Americans believe that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is deliberately keeping the public from getting natural cures for cancer.3

Why do people believe these theories? And how do they keep spreading even when they’re debunked? In this article, we’ll talk about what conspiracy theories are, how they happen, and look at some well-known examples of conspiracy theories.

What Is a Conspiracy Theory?

Conspiracy theories are incredibly widespread and seem to be a part of all modern and traditional societies. Research has yet to identify a culture that does not hold some sort of conspiracy beliefs.2

Even though they seem to be all around us, social scientists don’t agree on what constitutes a conspiracy theory. They have agreed on a few key elements of a conspiracy theory. A study of the psychology of conspiracy theories broke them down into five major elements:

A study of the psychology of conspiracy theories broke them down into five major elements:

• An assumption of how people and events are causally interconnected or form some pattern.

• The conspirators are intentional in their actions.

• A group of dishonest, bad actors are working in conjunction toward a goal (lone wolf explanations do not meet the definition of a conspiracy theory)

• There is a threat of harm to others from the conspirators.

• The conspirators act in secrecy, which explains why there is often sparse evidence and also makes it hard to disprove.

Why Do People Believe Conspiracy Theories?

Research suggests that people who feel ostracized or lack a sense of belonging are more likely to believe in conspiracies. People who feel that their status is threatened or who have a lower income are also prone to believing conspiracies.

In today’s world, social media, increased news consumption, and the confusion that came with the COVID-19 pandemic have created the perfect environment for conspiracies to take shape and spread.

We hear about people spreading conspiracy theories often, but there is no evidence that there are more conspiracy theories today compared to other historical periods—there are just more ways to spread conspiracy theories today than there were in the past. Any idea, regardless of how baseless it is, can easily travel at the speed of Wi-Fi.

The Internet, social media, and online news sources can disseminate any opinion. Since social media platforms in particular are designed to optimize user engagement, customers are fed specific content based on their interest in a belief system. It doesn’t take long before there are two or more streams of information running side-by-side that show different interpretations of the same events.

Since conspiracy theories usually center on the idea that powerful groups are taking secretive actions hidden from the public, they can be extremely difficult to disprove. A conspiracy theorist is likely to believe that any person who tries to debunk a theory is “in on it”—that is, they’re a part of the conspiracy themselves.

Conspiracy theories take advantage of some of the most basic characteristics of being human. The human mind is always trying to find patterns and make sense of its environment. Humans are also always looking for people with whom they feel connected. Conspiracy theories tap into all these human traits and offer us explanations about the world that can make us feel safer as we attempt to navigate living in it.

They Help Us Make Sense of the World

Our brains look for patterns, which is why we may think we see a face when looking at clouds. We also look for patterns in situations and find causal explanations for events and a set of behaviors. We do this as a way of making sense of a chaotic world that gives us tons of stimulation and random events.

A conspiracy theory explains the overwhelming events in life. It satisfies our curiosity when we don’t have enough data about something. To the human brain, a false explanation is better than no explanation.

Conspiracy theories are more likely to pop up when there is minimal or conflicting information about a topic. Conspiracies are also more common when an event is significant in many people’s lives, but the public is only given mundane or incomplete explanations for it.

Scientists have concluded that conspiracies are a way for us to get “cognitive closure,” and that’s thought to be a major appeal of them.

They Give Us a Sense of Control

Conspiracy theories seem to help people feel safe and as though they have some autonomy or control during random events. It proves to be a coping mechanism for people who feel at the mercy of fate. People are more susceptible to conspiracies when they are anxious and feel powerless.

People who feel unable to predict outcomes in a given situation are more likely to rely on conspiracy theories for affirmation.

How Evolutionary Psychologists Explain Conspiracy Theories

Some experts argue that it would have been an evolutionary advantage for early humans to find ways to manage their fears about things that posed a risk in their environment and to even expect those threats. Conspiracy theories may have helped them accomplish this.

For example, our ancestors probably would have benefited from being suspicious of powerful and potentially hostile coalitions. In this case, they may have been able to avoid a threat.

If human history primed us to believe conspiracies, that could be one reason why they persist no matter how implausible they are. It could also help explain why people fall prey to them even when there is no evidence to prove the conspiracies are true, and even when there is proof that debunks them.

Theory of Mind

The capacity to understand what others are thinking, known as the theory of mind, helped our ancestors cooperate in communal living.

Evolutionary psychologists have wondered if conspiracy theories might be an overzealous application of that ability that had evolved to regulate and improve the social life of early humans. If so, one may too readily jump to conclusions about the motives, intentions, and thought processes of others.

One study that supports this idea found that the capacity to read the emotions of others from their eyes alone can accurately predict belief in conspiracy theories.

Feelings of Belonging

Humans are wired to find threats in their environment, but also to detect potential alliances. This would be an evolutionary advantage in finding food, shelter, and potential mates.

In some ways, a conspiracy theory may satisfy the human desire to belong. Theories circulate among a group of people who may come to feel like a family, and what they believe is the basis for that bond.

Sharing in the conspiracy also validates their self-image. Built into a conspiracy theory is the notion that one’s group and what they believe is right and everyone else is wrong. The assumption is that the coalition is moral and good, and they are being sabotaged by people outside of it.

Studies have shown that having faith in conspiracies is associated with narcissistic tendencies—or an inflated view of oneself.

Consequences of Conspiracy Theories

The consequences of conspiracy theories can quickly be far-reaching and severe. In both recent and not-so-recent history, people have died as a direct result of conspiracy theories held by others.

They Spread False Information

A conspiracy theory is not just a harmless rumor. For example, during the COVID pandemic, social media claims that face masks caused pneumonia or compromised oxygen flow led to controversy and confusion about the preventive steps.

There is no perfect way to measure how acceptance of conspiracies changed the death count associated with COVID, but experts think that they undoubtedly increased the number of lives lost because of how the beliefs seemed to encourage or justify the rejection of behaviors that could have been lifesaving, like getting vaccinated and treated for COVID or wearing a mask and social distancing to protect others.3

They Disempower Believers

Conspiracy theorists believe they belong to a smaller, less powerful group that is at the mercy of a larger group. This belief gives them a sense of disempowerment and increases anxiety, isolation, and vulnerability to outside influences.

While studies have shown that a sense of ostracism strengthens conspiracy beliefs, a strong sense of self appears to reduce a person’s chances to believe in or endorse them.

Modern Example: COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories

COVID-19 changed our lives in almost every way, including causing a massive increase in news consumption in all forms but especially on social media.

One survey found that almost 70% of people around the world had increased their news consumption to learn more about COVID. Many of us were trying to figure out how the virus would affect our health, families, and businesses.

The unprecedented stress, unrelenting anxiety, isolation, and overburdened healthcare systems created fertile soil for what the World Health Organization (WHO) called a “massive infodemic.” The term described how much of the news about COVID that people were seeing was false and/or politically motivated.

Since more people wanted news, the media industry responded to the demand by providing even more information—some of it accurate, some inaccurate, and some conflicting. It became harder for a layperson to navigate all these sources and know what sources they could trust. It also became increasingly difficult for people to find reliable guidance on what they could believe.

Studies have shown that even though most of the information about the COVID pandemic was accurate, false news seemed to be shared and spread more. Conspiracy theories specific to the pandemic quickly began to emerge and spread almost as fast as the virus itself. For example, a March 2020 survey of U.S. residents showed that one in four Americans believed that COVID was intentionally developed by scientists.

A June 2020 survey by Pew Research revealed that around 20% of Americans thought there was at least “some truth” to the theory that the COVID pandemic had been intentionally planned.

The public health effects of the conspiracy theories proved incredibly damaging because people refused to take preventive steps, get treatment, or even believe that the virus was real.

Even as people began to return to the “new normal,” conspiracy theories about COVID continued to thrive. One of the most important focuses of public health post-COVID is to find better ways to prevent the creation and transmission of misinformation during global crises like pandemics.

At the same time, people are also becoming more aware of the possible consequences of misinformation: A 2023 Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll found that 83% of American adults think that the spread of inaccurate, false health information is a major problem.

Historical Examples of Conspiracy Theories

Let's take a look at some examples of prominent conspiracy theories in history.

The Salem Witch Trials

The Salem Witch Trials are one of the most well-known historical examples of how conspiracy theories can have lethal consequences. The Salem Witch Trials started in 1692 when a group of young women in Salem, Massachusetts, believed that they were demon-possessed and accused several other women of witchcraft.

Quickly, people became convinced that their neighbors were witches. The belief wasn’t a brief lapse in judgment—the trials went on for over a year. A judge and jury tried the supposed witches, and 30 of them were sentenced to hanging.

The witch trials were a clear example of a group of people who believed that another, more powerful group was working together with evil intentions to cause harm.

Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment

Some conspiracy theories have turned out to be true. The Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment is a prime example of this turn of events.

In 1932, a study was started without the consent of the Black men involved to observe the long-term effects of syphilis, a sexually transmitted infection. The men who enrolled at the Tuskegee Institute had syphilis and were told by the providers there that they would be treated. In reality, they received no treatment. The illness was allowed to ravage their bodies, and the men suffered irreversible consequences.

While it started as a conspiracy theory, it was revealed in 1972 that the experiment did actually take place. What’s more, a treatment for syphilis, penicillin, was available at the time of the experiment. Had the men been able to receive it, they may not have experienced the lasting health effects of the infection.

JFK’s Assassination

One of the darkest days in American history is also one that has a great deal of conspiracy theories surrounding it: The assassination of President John F. Kennedy in 1963.

Unlike other events that took some time to fuel conspiracies, JFK’s assassination had elements of uncertainty from the beginning. It was also a collectively traumatic moment for the American public, and there wasn’t much closure. The assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald, was killed on live television just two days after he assassinated Kennedy.

In the immediate aftermath of the assassination, polls showed that 62% of the American public thought there was a conspiracy at play. That rate dropped to 31% after the publication of the Warren Commission—the official investigation into what happened.

The Warren Commission concluded that Oswald had acted alone, but the “Lone Gunman” theory proved controversial.

Conspiracy theorists have claimed many things about JFK’s assassination, including that the CIA or Russia was behind it, and that Oswald could not have acted alone—or even that he didn’t do it at all.

More than 50 years later, conspiracies about the assassination still exist even as experts and multiple investigations have offered conclusions about what happened. In recent years, thousands of official government documents from the investigation have been declassified, but even these reports have not quelled conspiracy theories.

Roswell and Area 51

You could argue that Area 51 is a conspiracy theory that partly turned out to be true. While it’s not the alien adventure epic that most conspiracy theorists claimed, the U.S. government confirmed that the location in Nevada exists.

The theory dates back to 1947 in Roswell, New Mexico. Metal debris described in a report as a “flying saucer” stoked the iconic UFO conspiracy theory. Soon, people came to believe that what had been recovered by the military was an alien craft—and with it, perhaps, the bodies of extraterrestrials.

In 1994, the Air Force released a report from an investigation into the Roswell incident that said military research balloons, test dummies, and the bodies of human personnel who had been injured or killed in accidents, explained the event—not aliens.

However, people weren’t placated. UFO cover-up conspiracies became inextricably linked with Area 51, a highly classified Air Force base in Nevada. It was here that theorists believed the government was hiding all the proof of UFOs.

Part of the intrigue around Area 51 was that the U.S. government would not confirm what took place there—or even admit that it existed. While the most likely explanation was that it was a testing site for experimental military technology, its mysterious nature, and the government’s denial, made it seem like the prime place to conceal evidence of extraterrestrials.

In 2013, a declassified CIA report mentioned Area 51 by name. It was the first time the public got any official confirmation that Area 51 exists—previous accounts had mostly come from less official reports and sources like former military and government employees who claimed to have “insider knowledge” of the facility.1920

That said, conspiracy theories about Roswell and Area 51 continue largely because the government has not disclosed more details. Military experts maintain that Area 51 is most likely used to test and train experimental aircraft and weapons systems.

The Moon Landing

One of the most impressive feats and greatest achievements in human history, putting an astronaut on the Moon in 1969, is even vulnerable to conspiracy theories. Some people believe that we never went to the Moon, and that the famously televised moment when Neil Armstrong set foot on the lunar surface never happened. Instead, conspiracy theorists believe the event was filmed on a sound stage.

The theory goes back to a few years after the Moon landing when a former NASA engineer, Bill Kaysing, published a book that claimed the entire mission had been a fake. Those who believed in and promoted the theory cited the immense pressure that NASA may have been under to try to meet President John F. Kennedy’s goal of making it to the Moon by the end of the decade.

One reason that Moon landing hoax conspiracy beliefs may have taken off was the political climate of America in the 1970s, where there was significant government distrust amid the Vietnam War and scandals like Watergate.

Over the years, conspiracy theorists have continued to claim there’s “evidence” that the Moon landing didn’t really happen and that the event was purely a campaign of misinformation, but scientists have debunked them all.

Summary

Humans have invented and believed in conspiracy theories throughout history, often with significant and serious consequences. While some people have always been more likely to believe the misinformation spread by conspiracy theories, the COVID-19 pandemic showed that social media and the Internet have made it possible for harmful misinformation to spread far and fast. We will need to learn from past and present conspiracy theories to find ways to combat the infodemic of misinformation in the world today and reduce its negative effects on public health.

Notes

Douglas KM, Sutton RM, Cichocka A. The psychology of conspiracy theories. Curr Dir Psychol Sci. 2017;26(6):538-542. doi:10.1177/0963721417718261

van Prooijen JW, van Vugt M. Conspiracy theories: Evolved functions and psychological mechanisms. Perspect Psychol Sci. 2018;13(6):770-788. doi:10.1177/1745691618774270

Friedman RA. Why humans are vulnerable to conspiracy theories. Psychiatr Serv. 2021;72(1):3-4. doi:10.1176/appi.ps.202000348

Biddlestone M, Green R, Douglas KM. Cultural orientation, power, belief in conspiracy theories, and intentions to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Br J Soc Psychol. 2020;59(3):663-673. doi:10.1111/bjso.12397

Fleming N. Coronavirus misinformation, and how scientists can help to fight it. Nature. 2020;583(7814):155-156. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-01834-3

Pew Research. A look at the Americans who believe there is some truth to the conspiracy theory that COVID-19 was planned.

Kaiser Family Foundation. KFF Misinformation Poll Snapshot: Public Views Misinformation As A Major Problem, Feels Uncertain About Accuracy Of Information On Current Events.

David De Coninck, Frissen T, Koenraad Matthijs, et al. Beliefs in Conspiracy Theories and Misinformation About COVID-19: Comparative Perspectives on the Role of Anxiety, Depression and Exposure to and Trust in Information Sources. Frontiers in Psychology. 2021;12. doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.646394

Ferreira S, Campos C, Marinho B, Rocha S, Fonseca-Pedrero E, Barbosa Rocha N. What drives beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories? The role of psychotic-like experiences and confinement-related factors. Soc Sci Med. 2022;292:114611. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114611

Piotr Jabkowski, Domaradzki J, Baranowski M. Exploring COVID-19 conspiracy theories: education, religiosity, trust in scientists, and political orientation in 26 European countries. Scientific Reports. 2023;13(1). doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44752-w

Penn Today. Possessed: The Salem Witch Trials.

Clearing the myths of time: Tuskegee revisited. Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2005;5(3):127-127. doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(05)01286-7

National Archives. JFK assassination records.

National Archives. JFK assassination records – 2023 additional documents release.

Holland, M. The lie that linked CIA to Kennedy assassination.

JSTOR Daily. JFK’s assassination and “doing your own research.”

National Geographic. The legend of Area 51 — and why it still fascinates us.

Air Force. The Roswell report.

NPR. There it is! Area 51 revealed in declassified CIA report.

National Archives. The Central Intelligence Agency. and Overhead Reconnaissance: . · The U-2 and OXCART Programs, 1954-1974.

University of Manchester. How moon landing conspiracy theories began and why they persist today.

Institute of Physics. How do we know we went to the moon?.